The approach into the 1990 recession was remarkably similar to now with no obvious recession imbalances or theme, a recession head fake with preventative Fed cutting, an ensuing economic mini-boom, large deficits, and finally an inflationary shock. [PDF]

Over the last year and a half, I’ve predicted (and defended) the five major inflection points in Treasury yields. Until January of last year, I had never tried to make calls with this level of precision. I previously thought the primary trend (business-cycle) was the…

Jeffrey Gundlach, founder of Doubleline, and considered by many to be the “Bond King” has talked about his “hit rate” in various places of being a little over 70%. He talks about this in an interview here. 76% of my calls have been correct in…

Just like October of 2023 or April of 2024, there is a lot of confusion over why rates have risen so much. And just like those times, the answer lies in the economic data and their extrapolation. All the other explanations (bond market vigilantes, foreign…

Also on ZeroHedge The strong jobs report today (+254k) caused the dam to break on what I’ve been writing about for weeks with Treasury yields. The 2-year yield is higher by 22 basis points today. With the 2-year now at 3.93%, the bond market is…

As I wrote last Friday, I think the Fed will cut 50 basis points tomorrow to get ahead of economic weakness. While there is no crisis evident yet, it is the right thing to do given how consistent business cycles unfold. In other words, a…

I wanted to find out how much GDP comes from each of the 12 Federal reserve districts. Not finding it, I calculated it, and since it isn’t available anywhere else and isn’t easy to do, I wrote a short Whitepaper about it so others can…

With the yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) flirting with de-inverting today, and the Fed set to begin lowering rates in two weeks from today, it continues a sequence in this business cycle that has been mostly identical to the unfolding of events before the last…

Reasonable Treasury debt ratios and more than enough buyers put Treasuries in a much better light than is commonly heard. PDFAlso on Advisor Perspectives

Because interest rates have risen in recent months, financial commentators are getting carried away with a “new paradigm” narrative suggesting that interest rates will be higher indefinitely. They cite trade policy, “green” investment, AI, war, deficit spending, and “friend-shoring” to suggest the U.S. (if not…