Founded in 2021 by Eric Hickman, Lantern Capital LLC manages portfolios of U.S. sovereign interest rate futures (SOFR, US Treasury) for clients. Short-term interest rates have the greatest correlation to the business cycle versus other major U.S. asset classes (other parts of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, stocks, and commodities.) Therefore, macro-economics is the firmest basis to predict their primary trend.

Short-term interest rates have a 75-year history to study and a 5-year average repeatable cycle (the business cycle). The futures have enormous liquidity and no credit-risk. Broadly, Lantern aims to generate returns for clients by determining the direction of the business cycle which influences Federal Reserve policy and short-term interest rates for an average of 2.5 years at a time. Because interest rates do not rise or fall in a straight line through each side of a business cycle, significant losses/drawdowns can occur with interim volatility. Timing the turn in the business cycle carries considerable risk and can cause losses as well.

Lantern Capital is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the National Futures Association (NFA): #0547300.

About Eric Hickman

I am a career-long specialist in interest rates with 24 years of U.S. sovereign interest rate experience in U.S. Treasury bonds, repurchase agreements, and interest rate futures. I served 21 years at Kessler Investment Advisors, Inc. (KIA) under U.S. Treasury maverick and pioneer, Robert Kessler. I was president of KIA from 2012 to 2021. Over many years surrounding the Great Financial Crisis, I worked with Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong to offer a profitable leveraged 2-year U.S. Treasury/repurchase-agreement strategy to institutional investors in Asia.

I’ve been quoted in Barron’s, on CNBC, ZeroHedge, with several articles published on Advisor Perspectives (with the 6th most read article in 2021.) In 2012, I wrote the whitepaper “Investment Performance in Comparison to Holding Period Length” which studied how long it takes to make a return in various asset-classes given a random entry-date.

Latest writing

10/18/2023, “Views From the Top“, A collection of newspaper quotes over 75 years showing that fiscal fears, expectations of permanently higher rates, and the appearance of economic strength are hallmarks of past interest rate peaks and happening now.

11/28/2023, “It Won’t Be a Repeat of the 1970’s“, Economic conditions now are quite different from the 1970’s and still disinflationary. Also on Advisor Perspectives here.

12/22/2023, “Heed the Ghost of Recessions Past“, A Christmas-themed piece with a reminder that despite pervasive “soft-landing” talk, the most reliable indicators of recession say otherwise.

Services

Lantern Capital LLC manages investment accounts for Qualified Eligible Persons (QEPs) only; with a net-worth and portfolio requirement. For natural U.S. persons this is a $1 million+ net-worth AND either $2 million in securities or a $200,000+ balance in a futures account (for the prior 6 months.) Non-US persons are automatically QEPs. QEP eligibility varies for other entity types.

Inquiries

@EricWHickman

Eric-W-Hickman

 

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