The latest Beige Book, a collection of anecdotal information from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts was released today. I combine which districts are characterized up, flat, or down with the amount of GDP per district from my whitepaper last year to come up with the Percentage of US GDP in recession. This figure increased to 41% from 27% before (see chart below.) In addition to the Philadelphia and San Francisco districts receding in the last Beige Book, the New York (10.8% of US GDP) and Minneapolis (2.7% of US GDP) districts are receding now too.

One district was upgraded from flat to growing (Kansas City, 5.2% of GDP), eight stayed the same, and three were downgraded (see table below)

The labor market, which I am following especially closely because its ongoing strength is the hurdle to the Fed cutting rates, was characterized as deteriorating slightly,

Employment was little changed to up slightly in most Districts, with one District reporting a modest increase, four reporting a slight increase, four reporting no change, and three reporting a slight decline. This is a slight deterioration from the previous report with a few more Districts reporting declines.

Economic data still needs to weaken a little bit more (labor particularly) to get more of the Fed to talk and act dovishly (Waller already is), but everything is headed in that direction. The LDEI is in a clear trend lower since mid-February (black arrow in chart below) and I expect that to continue.