I think cyclical yield peaks were made for the Treasury market in October (on 10/18 for the 2-year and 10/19 for the 5 to 30-year.) This is based on the Fed pausing after a rate hike cycle, the yield curve de-inverting, leading economic indicators continuing to fall, a dramatic sell-off in the Treasury market with terrible sentiment, the labor market weakening, and inflation falling.

But also, the pace yields have fallen since then is consistent with the pace just beyond past pre-recession cyclical yield peaks. There is a broad pattern to this. The charts below compare how yields have fallen since mid-October (thick black line) with the past four cyclical yield peaks before recessions (thinner colored lines.) I show this for the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year.

The bond market narrative is shifting based on every economic data point (like with today’s strong jobs report), but that is normal in a transition-period like now. I am keeping an eye on these charts to see if yield behavior roughly fits with the past and it does; albeit with the long-end of the yield curve (10 and 30-year) moving a bit faster than in the past.