Insights

Last week, US Treasury yields rose significantly; the 10-year 50 basis points, and the 2-year 31 basis points. While not unprecedented amounts (the 2-year moved this much over 5 business days last October, and the 10-year in 2022), what is nearly unheard of is that…

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in a press briefing yesterday, said that the 90 day tariff pause was because so many countries were coming to negotiate, not because of market concerns. It led to a sense that tariffs were on their way out, only held up…

Secular trends in the stock market are defined by a long supercycle that repeats roughly every 30 years on average. ‘Super’ because it spans several business cycles. The stock market tends to spend about 15 years being prosperous and consistent but then an equal amount…

Jerome Powell gave a speech and Q&A at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) conference for business journalists near Washington D.C. today. This was a different type of appearance for Powell because it wasn’t in the usual places like the Economic Club…

The Trump administration’s tariff announcement yesterday was important because of the high levels that will be implemented but just as much for the resolve demonstrated in Trump’s speech. Tariffs represent a vision Trump has had for a long time. Yesterday he said, But I tell…

Because economic data hasn’t continued its steep drop starting with the payroll report, a high long-term inflation expectations reading from the University of Michigan last Friday, and Powell (and Mary Daly) going into the blackout period not dwelling on economic weakness, the bond market seemed…

In a short speech and Q&A at the Chicago Booth School of Business today, Jerome Powell provided the next-to-last word (Adriana Kugler, Governor, also gave a speech in Portugal just after this) we will hear from the Fed until the upcoming FOMC meeting, a week…

While the Beige Book is about anecdotal information, how it is summarized becomes a piece of economic data in itself. Combining the assessments of whether each of the twelve districts economic activity was up, flat, or down, with my work on how much each district…

I have been reticent about the 2-year yield dropping much surrounding the trade war because I wasn’t sure how the Fed would approach its higher inflation. Three things happened yesterday to bring me around to joining the rally (yields lower) in the 2-year. First, North…

The approach into the 1990 recession was remarkably similar to now with no obvious recession imbalances or theme, a recession head fake with preventative Fed cutting, an ensuing economic mini-boom, large deficits, and finally an inflationary shock. [PDF]