While the Beige Book is about anecdotal information, how it is summarized becomes a piece of economic data in itself. Combining the assessments of whether each of the twelve districts economic activity was up, flat, or down, with my work on how much each district represents of US GDP, results in the percentage of national GDP that was up, flat, or down.

The Beige Book released today shows weakness popping up from across the country (see breakdown in table) such that 27% of GDP contracted in the 1/6/2025 – 2/24/2025 period and 61% was either ‘flat or down’. This is in keeping with other economic data weakening starting with the January 2025 observation period. Look for the Fed’s hawkish tone to soften from this. Expected inflation for 5-years, 5-years in the future continues to fall (down 4 basis points today) giving the Fed the ability to start leaning dovish even amid the inflationary pressure from tariffs.