Wars and Treasury Bonds
With the Israel-Hamas conflict escalating along with the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war, there is concern of wider war. War is inflationary, but Treasury yields don’t necessarily rise during them because there are often bigger forces at play such as the business cycle, secular trends in inflation,…
Special Report: Views from the Top
A collection of newspaper quotes over 75 years showing that the Treasury bond narrative now is typical to ones near past cyclical interest rate peaks. Fiscal fears are used when no other explanation suffices. PDF
Economic data has caused yields to rise
With the speed and magnitude that Treasury yields have risen recently, many commentators have suggested it is due to a new paradigm of high interest rates based on structural inflation, stagflation, a higher neutral real rate, or fiscal concerns. But recent economic data suggests that…
Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Thoughts
Jerome Powell will give a closely-watched speech tomorrow (Friday, 8/25) at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming at 10:05am ET. Historically, the Fed Chairman’s speech has often hinted at inflection points in policy, but I don’t…