White Paper: GDP of each Federal Reserve District
I wanted to find out how much GDP comes from each of the 12 Federal reserve districts. Not finding it, I calculated it, and since it isn’t available anywhere else and isn’t easy to do, I wrote a short Whitepaper about it so others can…
Conceptualized U.S. Treasury interest rate behavior through a business cycle
With the yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) flirting with de-inverting today, and the Fed set to begin lowering rates in two weeks from today, it continues a sequence in this business cycle that has been mostly identical to the unfolding of events before the last…
Special Report: U.S. Treasuries and the Fiscal Situation
Reasonable Treasury debt ratios and more than enough buyers put Treasuries in a much better light than is commonly heard. PDFAlso on Advisor Perspectives
Not a new paradigm & new index
Because interest rates have risen in recent months, financial commentators are getting carried away with a “new paradigm” narrative suggesting that interest rates will be higher indefinitely. They cite trade policy, “green” investment, AI, war, deficit spending, and “friend-shoring” to suggest the U.S. (if not…
Recent economic data has weakened
As I’ve been writing, interest rates have risen since January from stronger economic data (real and inflation data.) In recent days, the biggest challenge to that theme has appeared. The balance of economic data released in April was stronger than expected but a few data…
An economically driven Treasury sell-off
There are many vague theories being discussed as to why Treasury yields have risen so much since January, but it isn’t that complicated. The Treasury market’s primary driver is the outlook for growth and inflation and the sell-off (rates higher) since January can be fully…
This is just a yield backup, not a new paradigm
I wrote in early January that Treasury yields would rise because economic data had turned upwards from the universally bad data released in November. As hot economic data continued in January and February, Treasury yields have risen about half of what they fell from last…
The bond market has gotten ahead of the economic data
Happy New Year! Economic data released in November (representing October) was uniformly negative and a major factor in how dovish the Fed was at their most recent 12/13 meeting. In the press conference, Jerome Powell said, “Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has…
Things are changing
Things are changing: the Beige Book, waning Fed jawbone, and the first Fed cut The Atlanta Federal Reserve prepares what they call the “Beige Book” to summarize anecdotal economic activity in the 12 geographic Federal Reserve districts two weeks before each Fed meeting. The most…
Special Report: It Won’t Be A Repeat of the 1970’s
Economic conditions now are quite different from the 1970’s and still disinflationary. PDFOn Advisor Perspectives