I think cyclical yield peaks were made for the Treasury market in October (on 10/18 for the 2-year and 10/19 for the 5 to 30-year.) This is based on the Fed pausing after a rate hike cycle, the yield curve de-inverting, leading economic indicators continuing…

The Federal Reserve and many financial pundits are hoping for a soft-landing; a condition where real growth falls below trend rather than goes negative (a recession) after an economic boom cycle. Take these predictions with a grain of salt because they are a trope before…

Interest rates fell along the yield curve during Jerome Powell’s press conference yesterday because he remained resolute about pausing despite strong economic data since the last meeting. Markets had feared his tone would change after strong Q3 economic data. It did not. The Fed’s stance…

Treasury yields fell after the strong Q3 GDP report this morning (+4.9%) because a big number had been incessantly talked about, predicted, and priced-in over the last three months. For the Treasury market, it was sell the rumor, buy the news. Now, the market will…

Despite the pervasive narrative that inflation is stubborn and sticky, it is falling quickly compared to other disinflationary periods. Both the core (excluding food and energy) and headline consumer price index have fallen at their second fastest rate compared to other historical disinflationary periods going…

The FOMC forecasts were hawkish describing a soft-landing, but the press conference was dovish. Forecasts (Summary Economic Projections or SEP) Short-term rates sold off dramatically yesterday afternoon; the 2-year rose 12 basis points. This was largely because the Fed’s average expectation for the Fed Funds…

The closely watched Consumer Price Index was released this morning for August. While the headline number (all-items) came in as expected at +0.6%, the more Fed-focused core CPI (excluding food and energy) was 0.1% higher than expected; +0.3% versus +0.2% expected. Interest rates rose initially…