A prominent new book on recessions and a recent piece by Niall Ferguson argue that energy shocks are among the most reliable causes of recessions, a thesis that has found a receptive audience given the Iran war and the sharp rise in oil prices that…

Also on Advisor Perspectives Summary: Comparing business-cycle-related primary trends of the falling 2-year Treasury yield shows that this is the slowest business cycle since WWII (WWII is a rough place where Treasury yield data and an independent Fed began). In general, business cycles were sharper and…

Three years with five reliable recession signals, five recession scares, and no recession Also on Advisor Perspectives At the last FOMC meeting press conference, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, gave an explanation why some wanted to pause cutting rates at the December meeting…

I’ve gotten an exceptionally high number of predictions right over the last two years since I started posting publicly. I put more emphasis on measuring macro-economics faster (LDEI, more on that at the end) and less on hot topics and micro-economics than most. I always…

Also on Advisor Perspectives here. With the stock market recovering most of what it lost earlier this year and tariffs coming down from the scary levels of Liberation Day, the consensus thinking is that the past few months were just another recession scare like 12/2023…

Over the last year and a half, I’ve predicted (and defended) the five major inflection points in Treasury yields. Until January of last year, I had never tried to make calls with this level of precision. I previously thought the primary trend (business-cycle) was the…

Jeffrey Gundlach, founder of Doubleline, and considered by many to be the “Bond King” has talked about his “hit rate” in various places of being a little over 70%. He talks about this in an interview here. 76% of my calls have been correct in…

Just like October of 2023 or April of 2024, there is a lot of confusion over why rates have risen so much. And just like those times, the answer lies in the economic data and their extrapolation. All the other explanations (bond market vigilantes, foreign…

Also on ZeroHedge The strong jobs report today (+254k) caused the dam to break on what I’ve been writing about for weeks with Treasury yields. The 2-year yield is higher by 22 basis points today. With the 2-year now at 3.93%, the bond market is…

As I wrote last Friday, I think the Fed will cut 50 basis points tomorrow to get ahead of economic weakness. While there is no crisis evident yet, it is the right thing to do given how consistent business cycles unfold. In other words, a…