As everyone is thinking about what Trump’s administration means for inflation, the real story for interest rates is the economic data. Economic data rose immensely from August through mid-November bringing interest rates and a hawkish Fed narrative with it. The Lantern Daily Economic Index (LDEI)…

A telling interview from Mary Daly on Friday. Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed District (nearly a quarter of U.S. GDP, 23.5%), was interviewed by Bloomberg on Friday. In it, she emphatically said that economic data was what changed her opinion since September,…

The Fed was hawkish today causing the 2-year to rise 13 basis points, but this tone and economic projections are entirely based on the “mini-boom” that’s occurred since August which is not durable. Powell made this distinction in an answer to a question about the…

As many of you know, I have been working on an index this year, the Lantern Daily Economic Index, to show how economic data is evolving daily. I’ve long felt that economic data drives interest rates more than is appreciated and now I can prove…

Three important things today: service-sector ISM, an interview with Jerome Powell, and the Beige Book 1. The service sector PMI (purchasing manager’s index) from the Institute of Supply Management was released this morning, falling almost 4 points from its last reading to 52.1 from 56.0….

Currently, those wanting to see real-time trends in economic data turn to the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Many strategists use it because it is the only tool, until the Lantern Daily Economic Index (LDEI), to track real-time aggregate economic data. In the latest FOMC meeting…

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! On balance, since November 12th when the NFIB small-business survey was released strong, economic data has been coming back down again. This has been seen in retail sales (less autos), housing starts, permits, new home sales, durable goods orders (less transportation), and…

Jerome Powell spoke and had a Q&A session with Catherine Rampell of the Washington Post in Dallas yesterday. Here is what I noticed. In the opening remarks, Powell emphasized the idea that the economy is good, each meeting is not pre-determined, and that the committee…

After the election, and with interest rates rising, it feels as though a recession is the furthest thing from happening. Yet, I continue to expect one early next year. Economic data has come in waves all throughout this “top of the business cycle”. Every time…

The FOMC met today, cut 25 basis points, and changed very little of the statement. Powell’s press conference was slightly dovish. Here is what stood out to me: 1. About higher Treasury yields. When asked about rising Treasury yields (a couple times), Powell said it…