Many economic indicators exhibit similar behavior surrounding recessions across their history. Below are eight charts of important U.S. economic indicators with the longest history and most reliable cyclical behavior.

The charts show an economic indicator’s behavior 2-years before and after past recessions indexed to its relevant recession start date and overlaid. The last three recessions (ex. 2020 COVID) are shown along with the long-term average and current series. Start by comparing the thick black line to the thick gray line. The intention is to show that a range of economic data is slowly weakening and near-to or beyond levels consistent with the beginning of a recession. The financial media and Fed is hoping for no recession, but behind the scenes, and at a longer-term data precision (“economic time”), data is slowly deteriorating towards a recession.

The yield curve is the most important indicator in this list because when the 10-year is this far below the 2-year (1%), the bond market is saying that that the Fed is too tight for long-term conditions, predicting rates to fall.

These indicators show that the U.S. economy is in a precarious position. Combined with the fact that 5 publicly traded banks failed as recently as two months ago! (table below), the current narrative of a better economy and continually raising Fed is unsustainable.