Insights

U.S. Interest Rates Commentary and Research from Eric Hickman

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell futures/securities. The material is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and makes no implied or express recommendations concerning the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.

Featured Insights

Stages in a bubble

The graphic below, Stages in a Bubble, was created by Professor Jean-Paul Rodrigue in 2008. Note the “New Paradigm” at the top. When I reference the idea of a “new paradigm” in my notes (like here and here), it is because it has long-been noticed…

Not a new paradigm & new index

Because interest rates have risen in recent months, financial commentators are getting carried away with a “new paradigm” narrative suggesting that interest rates will be higher indefinitely. They cite trade policy, “green” investment, AI, war, deficit spending, and “friend-shoring” to suggest the U.S. (if not…

Advisor Perspectives award

I didn’t see this until yesterday, but I was named one of the Top 25 Venerated Voices™ by Advisor Perspectives in the third quarter of last year for my writing. I was ranked 17 of 25 and share the award with recognizable industry names like Howard Marks,…

Recent economic data has weakened

As I’ve been writing, interest rates have risen since January from stronger economic data (real and inflation data.) In recent days, the biggest challenge to that theme has appeared. The balance of economic data released in April was stronger than expected but a few data…