Insights
U.S. Interest Rates Commentary and Research from Eric Hickman
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Powell’s Jackson Hole speech; not hawkish
Jerome Powell gave his widely anticipated speech at Jackson Hole this morning. Despite much of the financial punditry thinking he needed to contort himself in unnatural ways to demonstrate his hawkishness; he gave a straight-forward speech about the business cycle advancing and being data-dependent. He…
Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Thoughts
Jerome Powell will give a closely-watched speech tomorrow (Friday, 8/25) at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming at 10:05am ET. Historically, the Fed Chairman’s speech has often hinted at inflection points in policy, but I don’t…
“Soft landing” is the exception, not the rule
The financial media can make it seem as though “everyone” has eliminated their call for a U.S. recession. We’ve seen Bank of America (yesterday) and the Federal Reserve staff make it known they no longer forecast a recession. But Bloomberg’s recent survey of economic forecasters…
About the Fitch downgrade
Last night, Fitch (one of the three main credit rating agencies) downgraded the U.S. one-notch from AAA to AA+. Despite protests from the Treasury department and others, I think the downgrade is apt and a wake-up call to Washington. But, I don’t think it will…
Fed Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) Chart
The Federal Reserve conducts a quarterly survey of senior loan officers at banks to gauge the tightness or looseness of credit. The latest survey was released today which showed tighter credit conditions and an expectation for tighter credit conditions in the second half of 2023….
Comments on economic data today
Three important pieces of U.S. economic data came out today; all stronger than expected, but with more context to consider; 2nd quarter real GDP; survey 1.8%, released 2.4%. It is normal for GDP to be strong before a recession, and this GDP isn’t that strong…
Special Report: 2023 rhymes with 2007
PDFOn Advisor Perspectives
State of economic data
Many economic indicators exhibit similar behavior surrounding recessions across their history. Below are eight charts of important U.S. economic indicators with the longest history and most reliable cyclical behavior. The charts show an economic indicator’s behavior 2-years before and after past recessions indexed to its…