Insights

U.S. Interest Rates Commentary and Research from Eric Hickman

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell futures/securities. The material is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and makes no implied or express recommendations concerning the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.

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Mary Daly’s hawkish hurdle

The most interesting part of Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday was that he didn’t say anything about cutting rates ‘gradually’, or ‘methodically’ which would’ve indicated that he wanted to rein in Fed cutting expectations. Some of his colleagues (including Mary Daly) had used this ‘gradual’…

Moving too fast

I’ve been wrong with my short-term call in the last two weeks, thinking that interest rates would move higher surrounding the Fed. They have fallen dramatically. Economic data this week has been negative (ISM, Initial Jobless claims, and Unemployment/payrolls.) That, combined with the Fed’s 2nd…

Positive Eco Data and the Sahm rule

Over the last two days, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, and Building Permits were released better than economists’ expectations. This contrasts with the nearly-uniform negative economic data we’ve seen since mid-June (see black arrow in the chart below.) Because of the contrast and because…

Bill Gross on X/Twitter today

Bill Gross below on X (formerly Twitter) today saying to buy 2-year Treasuries over the long-end as the yield curve steepening begins. This is what Lantern Capital specializes in; using leverage to give 2-year Treasuries (or related futures) the duration exposure of bonds longer on…