After the election, and with interest rates rising, it feels as though a recession is the furthest thing from happening. Yet, I continue to expect one early next year. Economic data has come in waves all throughout this “top of the business cycle”. Every time rates rise, they constrict the economy, economic data becomes weaker, and rates fall to new lows (bull market pattern since October of last year.) In other words, this positive wave of economic data since August should be separated from the big picture trend of a slowly weakening labor market and consumer. Consider the following four charts: