The financial media can make it seem as though “everyone” has eliminated their call for a U.S. recession. We’ve seen Bank of America (yesterday) and the Federal Reserve staff make it known they no longer forecast a recession. But Bloomberg’s recent survey of economic forecasters tells a different story. Of the 59 respondents, 61% think a recession is coming by Q1 of next year, 53% think a recession is coming this year, and often, the ones expecting a recession are big foreign banks; perhaps not as pressured by the optimistic narrative promoted by stakeholders within the U.S.

Most of the responses are from 7/21/2023, before the Fed’s last meeting (7/26) and before the first release of Q2 GDP (7/27), but I wouldn’t expect a dramatic change from those two events. Many respondents have mapped out a deep recession.

And, the table of all respondents: