Insights
U.S. Interest Rates Commentary and Research from Eric Hickman
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The LDEI is more reliable than the Citi Surprise Index
Currently, those wanting to see real-time trends in economic data turn to the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Many strategists use it because it is the only tool, until the Lantern Daily Economic Index (LDEI), to track real-time aggregate economic data. In the latest FOMC meeting…
Economic data are rounding over and so are yields
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! On balance, since November 12th when the NFIB small-business survey was released strong, economic data has been coming back down again. This has been seen in retail sales (less autos), housing starts, permits, new home sales, durable goods orders (less transportation), and…
What does the LDEI index level mean?
Unlike the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the Lantern Daily Economic Index (LDEI) includes real and inflation data. This better reflects the “totality of the data”. The chart below shows how the LDEI compares to nominal GDP (QoQ%) over its history. They are very similar,…
76% hit rate over the last year
Jeffrey Gundlach, founder of Doubleline, and considered by many to be the “Bond King” has talked about his “hit rate” in various places of being a little over 70%. He talks about this in an interview here. 76% of my calls have been correct in…
Powell not that hawkish and more
Jerome Powell spoke and had a Q&A session with Catherine Rampell of the Washington Post in Dallas yesterday. Here is what I noticed. In the opening remarks, Powell emphasized the idea that the economy is good, each meeting is not pre-determined, and that the committee…
Four charts
After the election, and with interest rates rising, it feels as though a recession is the furthest thing from happening. Yet, I continue to expect one early next year. Economic data has come in waves all throughout this “top of the business cycle”. Every time…
FOMC meeting review: economic rate rise and slightly dovish
The FOMC met today, cut 25 basis points, and changed very little of the statement. Powell’s press conference was slightly dovish. Here is what stood out to me: 1. About higher Treasury yields. When asked about rising Treasury yields (a couple times), Powell said it…
Trump won, but the business cycle is the same
Donald Trump won the U.S. Presidency last night and there is a 97% chance that Republicans will have control of both chambers of Congress. This is the worst-case scenario for fiscal spending but the reaction from the bond market is telling. The bond market is…
Why Treasury yields rose today
On the surface, rising Treasury yields today seem impossible because non-farm payrolls and their revisions were weaker, manufacturing ISM was weaker, and Trump’s odds to win in betting markets has fallen 7 points since Wednesday meaning the “Trump trade” should be in reverse. US sovereign…
It’s the data, stupid!
Just like October of 2023 or April of 2024, there is a lot of confusion over why rates have risen so much. And just like those times, the answer lies in the economic data and their extrapolation. All the other explanations (bond market vigilantes, foreign…